Key event: USD. Retail Sales
The retail Sales measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative.
We expect a lower reading than the previous month.
Until release day, we expect a continuation of the actual US weakening trend against most major pairs. We do not expect a surprising positive data release that could reverse the actual trend direction.
Key Levels EUR/USD:
- Resistance 1.2170, 1.2350
- Support 1.1990, 1.1850, 1.1700
Price has recovered aggressively to the upside. A test of the next resistance is very likely. If that level doesn’t hold we should see a rally all the way to 1.2250/1.2300.
We will look for any opportunity to join the bullish trend. Any retracement or pullback. Only an unexpected important release might overturn the actual trend.