The risk-positive market atmosphere allowed commodity-linked currencies to gather strength on Thursday and made it difficult for the dollar to gain traction. Nevertheless, rising US Treasury bond yields helped the greenback outperform the JPY and the CHF, limiting the US Dollar Index’s downside. The benchmark 10-year US T-bond yield is currently sitting at its highest level since early June at 1.6%. Ahead of the September jobs report, the market action is likely to remain subdued. 

Macro data: The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday that there were 326,000 initial claims in the week ending October 2, compared to the market expectation of 350,000. In Europe, the data from Germany revealed Industrial Production contracted by 4% on a monthly basis in August. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) September Meeting Accounts offered no new details regarding the upcoming adjustment to the PEPP.

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Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report will be watched closely by investors. The market consensus points to an increase of 488,000 following August’s disappointing print of 235,000.

Statistics Canada will publish the Canadian September labour market data as well.

Wall Street: The S&P 500 gained 0.83% on Thursday with the Consumer Discretionary sector leading the rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.05%. After the closing bell, the US Senate passed the bill to raise the debt ceiling by $408 billion through November, as expected.

 EUR/USD failed to capitalize on the modest USD weakness and ended up closing the day flat near 1.1550. The pair continues to trade dangerously close to the 2021-low it set 1.1529 earlier in the week.

 AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose 0.55% and 0.3% on Thursday, respectively, before going into a consolidation phase.

Supported by rising US T-bond yields, USD/JPY is closing in on 112.00 and stays within a touching distance of the 8-month high it reached at 112.08 on September 30. 

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Gold continues to fluctuate in its weekly range. After rising toward $1,770, XAU/USD reversed its direction amid surging yields and closed in the negative territory at $1,755. The precious metal could identify its next short-term direction in case it manages to break out of the $1,750-70 range after NFP.

Cryptocurrencies: Following Wednesday’s impressive rally, Bitcoin staged a correction and lost nearly 3% but continues to trade above $50,000. Meanwhile, Ethereum and Ripple both continue to trade in relatively narrow channels. Altcoins seem to be lagging behind as bitcoin has taken center stage. Many analysts calling $70000-80000 handle as mentioned in our weekly outlook.

Local SA Markets  

Our call on Business Day TV last week on Exxaro resources has seen a 14% gain this week as long term calls on Sasol and Remgro has seen continued growth. Going forward we are now looking at the hospitality space with long positions on Sun International, Tsogo sun and City Lodge group. All of which have already seen 20%+ gains this week already, with huge potential for further growth. Going into 2022 we believe the hospitality sector might present the best value for money at this stage as most of these shares are trading at multi-year lows.